How Marketers Can Get Clean Incrementality Measurements in a Messy World

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This post was created in partnership with Fetch

Key takeaways

  • Brands are under increasing pressure to demonstrate the incremental impact of their marketing efforts.
  • Attribution is both hard to measure and hard to get a consensus on.
  • Getting clean incrementality measurements requires effort and time.

Marketers have more data than ever, yet many still struggle to answer a basic question: Did a campaign change behavior or capture demand that already existed? Incrementality has become a common proof point, but also one of the most debated.

During an ADWEEK House group chat co-hosted with Fetch, industry leaders discussed why measurement often falls short, where teams get it wrong, and what it takes to get closer to the truth.

Incrementality is a contested metric

The panelists began by discussing why incrementality has become such a contentious metric.

Sandra Abla, director of brand marketing, paid media, and marketing operations at CAVA, pointed to organizational pressure. “They want a clean metric to show incrementality. But, we know human behavior is super messy,” she said. “And, unless you do have control, it’s really hard to understand what is driving that incrementality.”

Nicole Lesinski, director of ecommerce strategy at Nestlé, agreed that there’s pressure to prove where growth is coming from. “But we don’t really care where it comes from, because we’re just trying to sell more. I need more units across the register all day, every day, but I have to put that dollar that I’m spending and attribute that to a forecast.”

Melissa Berger, chief solutions officer at Digitas, shared a surprising statistic. “Only 8% of brands actually have a formal incrementality program,” she said. “The pressure to make sure that every dollar counts is so high that taking even a small percentage of customers out is very challenging.”

Why attribution breaks down across teams and channels

Panelists also discussed that attribution isn’t only hard to measure—it’s hard to agree on.

Vinny Rinaldi, VP of consumer connections at The Hershey Company, pointed out that attribution often breaks down because too many teams try to claim the same result. “At the end of the day, there’s only one unit tied to moving through the register or not,” he said. “It’s not one team that did it. It’s everyone did it.”

The path to purchase is also harder to track now. Marissa Solan, U.S. director of earned and social media at Haleon, mentioned how fragmented consumer behavior has become. “There are just so many pathways—how are you able to track all those?” she said. “You can go from awareness to purchase in the same moment today.”

Clean measurement is harder than it looks

The group turned to how incrementality is measured—and where it falls short.

Geoff Matthews, general manager, household essentials at Fetch, said randomized control trials remain the most reliable way to isolate impact, but they require discipline. “People throw out control, but it’s got to be randomized,” he said. “People will model it, or they’ll stack it after the fact, and that’s really challenging.”

That rigor isn’t easy to maintain. Abla said most brands are working across fragmented systems and timelines that don’t align with how behavior changes. “C-suites want the answer today, but you really need more time than that,” she added. “We need six months, eight months, to actually see if we’re driving an impact. It’s not clean and it’s not simple.”

Even then, the signals from various measurement partners that brands work with don’t always line up. “If your partner is saying everything’s positive and successful, then something’s not working,” Abla added. “If all your results are positive, then you know something’s not adding up.”

Measurement only works when teams are honest about the results

Even with stronger planning, not everything will work, and that’s part of the process.

Matthews said partners need to be upfront when something isn’t likely to deliver. “If we know our platform, or we know the plan, and we don’t think it’s going to work, we’ve got to tell you now,” he said.

Robin Wheeler, chief revenue officer at Fetch, brought the conversation back to the bigger issue, which is selling more. Unclear measurement can muddle the true goal. “I’m sick of ‘we grew sales.’ What does that even mean?” she said, pointing to how easily performance can be overstated without the right context.

Featured Conversation Leaders

  • Melissa Berger, Chief Solutions Officer, Digitas
  • Nicole Lesinski, Director, Ecommerce Strategy, Nestlé
  • Geoff Matthews, General Manager, Household Essentials, Fetch
  • Sandra Abla, Director of Brand Marketing, Paid Media and Marketing Operations, CAVA
  • Vinny Rinaldi, VP, Consumer Connections, The Hershey Company
  • Zoë Ruderman, Chief Content Officer, ADWEEK
  • Marissa Solan, U.S. Director, Earned and Social Media, Haleon
  • Robin Wheeler, Chief Revenue Officer, Fetch

Ashley R. Cummings

Ashley R. Cummings is a professional freelance writer, specializing in SaaS, marketing, and advertising. She also runs Content Connect, the newsletter and community to help you grow your content marketing muscles.

Ashley R. Cummings is a professional freelance writer, specializing in SaaS, marketing, and advertising. She also runs Content Connect, the newsletter and community to help you grow your content marketing muscles.

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